Polls are just a snapshot in time.Obviously they can change. My numbers are based on actual polling and a mathematical system that I have devised which has helped me become a professional investor
Obama carried 27 states plus the District of Columbia and Nebraska’s second
Congressional district for a total of 365 electoral votes in 2008. Democrats have
carried 18 of these states plus D.C., for a total of 242 EVs (based on the new
apportionment from the 2010 Census), in every election since 1992. Of these 18,
Obama is almost certain to carry 14 of them (California, Connecticut, Delaware,
Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon,
Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington) plus D.C. in 2012 for a total of 186 EVs.
Republicans carried 22 states (Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia,
Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska,
North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas,
Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming) plus the rest of Nebraska’s CDs for a total
of 173 EVs in 2008. They are almost certain to carry all of these in 2012 plus
Nebraska’s first Congressional District and Indiana for a total of 191 EVs. This
is also far short of a majority, meaning that Republicans will need 79 additional
EVs to capture the presidency.
With the exception of New Hampshire, the additional states Obama and the Republicans
need can come from three broad geographic areas: the Midwest/Rust Belt, the
Southwest, and the New South. They are all states that were carried by Obama in 2008.
13 states will decide the Presidency
Obama has to WIN to Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin
Those states will give him 56 more electoral votes, But those states have a meaning to him. Obama cant expect to win Ohio if he loses Pa or Michigan. Obama cant expect to win Iowa if he loses Wisconsin and cant expect to win Virginia if he cant win Pennsylvania
Winning these states puts Obama at 242 and gives him multiple chances to win
Romney needs to win Ohio Florida North Carolina .which would give him 62 electoral votes and put him at 253 Electoral votes
Romney cant expect to win Pennsylvania Virginia or Michigan if he can’t win Ohio Florida or North Carolina
I have Obama ahead in Michigan 53-47, Minnesota 51.7 -48.3, Pennsylvania 52-48 and Wisconsin 50.8 -49.2
I have Romney ahead in N Carolina 54.4-45.6, Florida 52.8-47.2 and Ohio 52.1-47.9
Romney would have 253 Obama 242
Only 6 states left to play and Virginia has the most Electoral Votes
Virginia went for Obama last time. Almost 30 percent of the vote should be minorities and I expect Obama to win that segment 82-18 However the white college educated and the white working class vote will decide this race
In 2008 the white college educated went for McCain 56-44. However I could see this be 61-39 in this election and the White working class was 67-33 for McCain last time.I don’t see why that isn’t at least 70-30 this time
My numbers have Romney ahead 51.5 -48.5.
Lets do some Math In Virginia 45 percent are white working class and 25% are college educated and 30 percent are minorities
If Romney gets 60% of the educated that is 15% toal, 18 percent of the minorities are 5.4% of the total. Romney would need 66% of the white working class to win the state assuming the turnout was what it was last time .I just see Romney doing better than McCain.If Romney got 70% he wins by the margin I projected
Rasmussen had Romney up 1 point on April 25 when Obama was winning head to head.Romney is now up 4 points head to head
Clearly this state is advantage Romney at this point but this could all change as you all know
If Romney wins Virginia then he will be sitting at 266 and needs 1 more state to clinch the presidency
Colorado has 9 electoral votes
Colorado has 17 percent minorities who went 65-35 last time for Obama,Let’ assume he keeps that ratio even though the turnout in the midterm election was 12 percent minorities
Colorado has 38 percent white working class voters and last time they went 58-42 for McCain, I have to believe that will be probably between 63-65 percent this time Let’s assume 63%
Romney would have 5.95 percent from the minorities and 23.94 from the white working class
Romney would need to win 47% of the White college educated .He won 43 percent last time. This will be extremely close.
Colorado population is 2.8 percent Mormon. I have this race as virtual tossup with Romney at 50.6 and Obama at 49.4
The third state we are analyzing is Nevada, Nevada has 31 percent minorities with a growing Hispanic population .It also has 6.5 percent of its population are Mormons.
This is how I see it ,Minorities went for Obama last time 80-20
White College Educated who were 13 percent went for McCain 52-48 last time. I believe that Romney should win this 55 -45 this time
So Romney should have 6.2 from minorities and 7.15 from college educated
56 percent of the total voters are white working class who went with McCain 56-44
Romney needs to win at least 66 percent of these voters this time to win
I have Obama leading this 52.5 -47.5 and it is almost a certain Obama state in my opinion unless Romney can poll better with minorities and improve his turnout
Iowa
This state is the state in my opinion that Romney should target after the BIG 4 Ohio NCarolina,VA and OH
The state elected a Republican governor and only has about 10 percent minority population that went 74-26 to Obama in 2008
Let’s assume the turnout percentages are the same
Iowa has 20 percent college educated voters who last time voted for Obama 50-49
Let assume that stays the same
Romney got 2.6 from minorities and 9.8 from college educated
Iowa has 70 percent of their voters as white working class and they went for Obama 53-47
Romney needs to win this class by at least 54 percent
I just think that Obama has lost faith of the Iowa people who kind of adopted hin and his candidacy in 2008
I also think many Christians do not like the gay marriage stance and the almost 19 percent Catholics do not like Obama’s war on the church
This state will be about energizing the base here
I have this also as a virtual tossup Romney 50.6 Obama 49.4
New Mexico has almost 50 percent minorities who voted 71-29 last time for Obama.Let’s assume Obama keeps that percentage which is unlikely
16 percent of white college educated went 50 percent for Obama last time.let’s suppose that stays the same
34 percent are white working class voters
Romney needs over 80 percent of them to win ,if the other stats stay level
MCCain won 63 percent and I could see Romney winning 71 percent or more but unless Romney can improve with hispanics I see Obama winning this easily 53.1-46.9
New Hampshire is only 4 electoral votes but this state is a pure tossup
only 6 percent are minorities and white college educated voters are 34 percent of the population and White working class are 60 percent
The white working class went for Obama over McCain but certainly Romney is more suited for New Hampshire.Kelly Ayotte won her mid term election easily
This state is a virtual tossup I have this at Obama 50.2 Romney 49.8
In conclusion: Virginia will play a huge role in how this election goes as well as Ohio
Romney needs to win Ohio or Virginia and he if he loses both he will certainly lose
If Romney wins Both he will almost certainly win
If Romney wins just Ohio and not Virginia, he will need 17 electoral votes out of New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado the 3 most likely states for him to win
If Romney fails to win Virginia and cant win all 3 of IA,CO and NH ,he will need to steal a state like WI NV or NM or MN where it is much more unlikely
Many pundits believe their are MORE combos for Obama to win than Romney
I don’t disagree
But the odds on them happening are much lower
Florida and N Carolina at today’s point is solidly for Romney
Romney was ahead in Fla on Apr 25 when Obama was ahead nationally.No way Obama is up in Fla if Romney is up 4 percent nationally
Romney was up 8 points in N Carolina right after the gay marriage announcement but before the bad jobs data which has given Romney a 4 point lead nationally.
Romney was winning Rasmussen by 1 in VA on April 25 when he trailed Obama in national polls head to head. Obviously Romney should be further head given Romney was ahead 4% like in June 3rd Rasmussen.
Romney was winning in Ohio by 2 right before the awful jobs report.Again that lead has more than likely increased
This election at this point is very close but for the first time Romney has maintained a slight lead in the electoral college as you can see
This recall election on June 5th will be very interesting
If walker wins by 5 points or more,it will force Obama to spend money and time in a state that should be solidly in his possession
There is more than 5 months until the election and these polls can change in no time
But many who believe Obama wins this easily are not paying attention to the facts and numbers in this article and letting the mainstream media delude them
Just keeping it real here
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