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Category Archives: Morning Market Observations
I think JP Morgan will set the tone of the market and most banks have fairly low bars to jump over.JP Morgan is the best of breed bank and their earnings should set the mood today. Certainly the bias is … Continue reading
One step back and two steps forward seems to be the rhythm of the market lately. As we discussed, this week is playing out as we put pressure on overhead resistance on both the 12,000 DOW level and 1,300 SP500 level. Earnings have been, for the most part, supportive of the current rally and tape levels however the divergence in the oscillators and breadth of the advance has to change and change soon, otherwise this rally will run out of steam and we’ll see profit taking by the Bulls (and of course the Bears will take credit for stopping the Bull’s advance and we know that’s BS…LOL). Bears get no credit from me until they can take out the 1280 support level on the SP500, until then, we’re on trend and that’s UP Smile. Continue reading
We sure got a taste of both ends of the spectrum with yesterday’s tape and it was good to see the 1280 support held up like a champ. Yesterday’s tape was another pop quiz for your portfolio and looking at how your holdings performed was clearly an opportunity to ID what changes should be made in your holdings….I say that with the realization that earnings season volatility can be magnified and price action is often an over reaction to earnings statements and I don’t make hasty decisions until I see how a play’s price action shakes out over the subsequent days after earnings are announced and after the conference call provides more guidance going forward. Continue reading
Know who you are….and if you don’t like who you are….make changes. See, the good thing about investing or changing is the only thing stopping you from being good at what you do is the space between your ears. Safe high yield value investing is possible if you are patient and you pick your targets carefully. The difference between value investing and trend trading is huge in that the value investor is not looking for momentum, they are simply looking to put there money to work only when they can get it in at the right price. Continue reading
Critical week for the markets IMO as we’ve got earnings season in full swing and a busy economic calender….There are seven economic releases scheduled for the week in addition to the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year and two potentially influential Treasury auctions. Continue reading
And we’ve got life……Futures have a bullish pulse and that’s a change from the past few mornings. Earnings being in full swing plus today being OpEx day we’re sure to see volatility….however, I’ve been surprised by how orderly the market has been this week. If today somehow closes above 1293.24 we would then have a 8 weeks in a row of market gains. Continue reading
Well the next two sessions are going to be interesting as we’re on support as of yesterday’s close and it takes a close above 1287 in order to signal a change in the short term trend because yesterdays close below that mark was negative and signaling a possible change in the short term timeframe. We talked about high beta plays being vulnerable and we saw them fall as expected yesterday. Continue reading
Melt up seems to persist but with added intraday volatility thanks to Q4 earnings season being in full force. It always gets interesting when the markets get to a crossroad like they are now because there are two camps: those who say we’re going to roll over and experience a correction in a matter of days, and those who say we’re at the beginning of a bull run and the party is just getting started. Safe high yield investing or value investing is what many aspire to so the key is to get your money into plays at the right price….timing of that entry is secondary to the value investor because a company’s metrics or dividends act as a safety net when the inevitable corrections ensue. Continue reading
Quality and content of the discussions inside the BIO Forum overnight was outstanding and getting through all of the new posts delayed today’s morning market observations….hard to put down a good read Smile. Well we’ve got a holiday shortened OpEx week on our hands and the data flow on the Q4 earnings is getting into high gear. Continue reading
Today could be a record setting day as the market can finish up for the 7th straight week in a row. The futures indicate we’ll have a soft start. I suspect we’ll see the highest volatility today during the last hour of today’s session since it is the last opportunity for the tug of war contest between the Bulls and Bears before the three day weekend we’ve got this weekend (US Markets are closed on Monday). Continue reading
We seem to be back on track in terms of the focus of the intraday chatter is back onto earnings announcements and politics and macro issues are on the sidelines. We’ve seen an increase in volatility like we expected in Friday’s Observations but it has also been orderly with the upward bias & melt up being persistent. As we talked about on Monday, today’s economic data points are of higher importance: Continue reading
OK, let’s get down to business after our extended holiday Labor Day weekend and roll up our sleeves to see what this week has in store for us now that the “big boys/girls” are back from their summer vacations…..
Looking around … Continue reading
EUR/YEN ratio is 108.4480 which is positive for equities
However, its all about the job report today IMO.
What was strange yesterday, is the amount of “puts” bought which usually spikes before past jobs reports “because of fear” did not spike yesterday, … Continue reading