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S&P 500 1876.44 -0.59 -0.03% NASDAQ 4332.708 -19.417 -0.45% INDU 0.00 N/A N/A EURJPY=X 143.3348 N/A N/A EURUSD=X 1.3868 N/A N/A ^TNX 2.797 +0.06 +2.19% CLV10.NYM 0.00 N/A N/A GCU10.CMX 0.00 N/A N/A 2014-03-07 11:58
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Category Archives: Morning Value Investing Observations
The heck with the markets being in a soft patch, it seams like we are literally stuck in the mud. It’s time for the politicians to get out of the car and each get behind the solution to the budget ceiling debate and push the car out of the mud so we can move on. Yes, they will get dirty and have mud on their suits, but that heavy lifting is what they are hired to do and they have used up enough oxygen in the room with their banter and bickering which has produced no resolution to the problems as of this morning. Continue reading
If you self-manage your investments, the first thing you have to learn is that the markets have an ebb and flow just like the ocean tides. The flows up and down must be expected and considered normal and so are the subsequent ups and downs in one’s portfolio. There are times to step on the gas, times to lift your foot off the brakes and gas, and times to put your foot on the brakes. We may be getting close to putting our foot back on the gas for a run back up to resistance. I’ve talked about “metal capitol” and how precious it is. Continue reading
The US markets appear to be on track to continue the melt up as folks come out of vacation mode. We’re in a bit of a void in terms of data since it’s not until July 11th when Alcoa kicks off the second quarter earnings season with their announcement of their second quarter earnings results. Here’s what we have for economic data points for the balance of this week with Friday’s employment report being the most critical data point for this week: Continue reading
BIO Forum subscribers know a top call was made at the end of April and those who follow my plays saw that I was rotating out of plays heavy in April despite having Calls that didn’t expire until May. Sometimes, the hardest thing to do as an investor or trader is to watch the markets after you have played your hand. Continue reading
This Monday morning looks like the market is going to get a haircut thanks to the lack of resolution on the Greek credit crisis. Smart investors will simply let this play out and save their dry powder for when shares of their favorite plays are on sale – kind of like shopping on the final days before Christmas when deep cuts in pricing are done by merchants who want to move their goods while the consumer is in spending mode. Continue reading
With the markets downdraft nearly completing their 7th straight week since the May high, new value investors are probably the ones who are questioning their conviction in there positions. The seasoned value investors, well….that’s a different story. See, it’s one thing to ID a play with good fundamentals and real earnings that are sustainable going forward, and it’s another thing to take a position in that company at the “right price”. Continue reading
What’s next for the market? Frankly, no one knows for sure. Do I hope we have put in a bottom? Yes, of course…but hope is not a trading or investment strategy. At times like these when oversold indicators don’t seem to move from oversold and the market has just finished its 6th down week since the beginning of May, it’s our job as investors to keep looking under rocks for value and potential in companies with real earnings and strong balance sheets. Continue reading
Trading and investing isn’t always easy and there are times like this when the market comes to a cross-roads. Some folks didn’t hear or act on the warnings of a top coming from our April posts and I do think that unrealized losses since the May high are part of the game and only a concern IF you are using options with < 4 months before expiration. Continue reading
What’s next for the markets? That’s what traders or investors both ask themselves every day, but after 5 consecutive down weeks on the SP-500 (that hasn’t happened since July 2004 and also just after the 911 attack in 2002), that’s a question that’s rises to the top at times like these. Correct answer is no one really knows. The market is made up of a lot of pieces. There is an element of time frame that also needs to be defined in order for one to give a more accurate answer. Continue reading
Seems like the we may get a resolution to the upside on the SP-500′s short term trend if we get a close above the 1330+/- level today and that would put all three time frames back to UP. Realizing that the tape’s final hour’s movement is most important is important in avoiding getting whip sawed by mid day head fakes: Continue reading
Just like the ocean tides, there’s an ebb and flow in the market no different than when the tide comes in, then it goes slack, and then it goes out. Right now, it’s slack tide in the markets and they are different in that they don’t have exact cycle times have to reverse like tides do. What markets do is they do is health back-filling and retracement. Continue reading
Investing and trading success or failure is tied directly to a series of decisions one makes and whether or not one can adapt to current conditions and learn from their mistakes. I’m highly critical of errors I make (which had the potential to be avoided) and accept changes in directions due to black swan events as part of the game of investing and trading. Continue reading
Watching the market at inflection points can be interesting to watch or stressful if you simply let your portfolio drift without consciously managing your positions relative market status & conditions. A successful trader or investor is one who can quickly change focus between the minutia of studying a balance sheet to standing back and looking at the overall market status and potential direction going forward in the short/medium/long terms. There are lots of moving pieces in the market and one needs to constantly be scanning the landscape. Continue reading
It’s a stock picker’s market may be an over used phrase, but it rings true when you see the performance of Bill’s portfolio in the past week or so. I don’t know many long investors who’s portfolio has tracked the markets decline. BIO Forum members do know one long term investor who is outperforming the market by a long shot. Continue reading
Are we having fun yet? If your response to that question promotes an anger or disgust response then that’s a tell that you haven’t been listening and perhaps changes in how you approach investing or trading might be good for your wallet. Tuesday before the market opened, we ID’d the following points that one needs to work into the ebb and flow for timing their buys/sells. Continue reading