Tag Archives: Today’s Observations

Cutting loose the latest Euro PIG issue of Portugal after it successfully passed the bond test is setting the futures free to run. We talked about how earnings are now on center stage in Yesterday’s Observations. Earnings off revenue is what we as investors want to see. The tricky part is earnings season can be difficult with upgrades/downgrades…..meats/beats…..and misses and these events can kill the best laid plans long or short. The key is to focus on safe high yield investments and getting your money in right. Continue reading →

New week brings us the beginning of Q4 earnings season when Alcoa’s earnings are released after the close today. The markets are going to be looking closely at the earnings as they start to roll out (don’t they always Smile) as we got noise of disappointing December retail sales last week. The pre-market open noise we see reflected in the futures is from the European PIG nation of Portugal (what’s new?). The futures could be worse if it were not for more M/A news where Duke Energy is buying Progress Energy. Continue reading →

Are we having fun yet? Markets being at a cross roads just before earnings season next week has elevated volatility just like we talked about. Commodities, specifically PM’s, downdraft is playing out and the question there becomes when that micro trend end. There’s clearly a rotation in sectors happening and one doesn’t have to look hard to see that tech and financials are lining up to take leadership rolls in the market. Eyes are on also on Healthcare plays as they may heat up and get out of the funk they have been in lately. Continue reading →

Have I used the word “melt up” lately?….sure have and it continues. I’m cautiously optimistic and I have yet to find any solid reasons for taking more profits here (that doesn’t mean I’m not looking really hard because sitting on my hands and profits is a hard thing to do folks Smile). Headlines like “Bulls see more room to run” and positive sentiment is infectious however what we do here at the BIO forum is “buy the dips and sell the rips”. Sector rotation is what I’m watching for ahead of next week’s beginning to the Q4 Earnings Season. Continue reading →

We’ve talked about “ebb & flow” being normal and natural in the market and yesterday’s reference to consolidation and retracement being needed and healthy for the market. That same air is in the wind and in today’s futures. The difference between the pro and the rookie investor is having the ability to filter out the noise and to find bargains among the falling knives during a market downdraft. Continue reading →

It’s going to be interesting over the next few days (before earnings season begins next week) if the market melt up continues. Markets don’t climb forever and it’s normal for retracement and corrections as they are healthy and needed. It will also be interesting to see if commodities and PM’s give back any of their recent gains in the near term. Continue reading →

A new day, new week and a new year. Welcome to 2011….sure wish I had a crystal ball but I don’t. I’ll leave the pontificating to others…..but think about this, if you want to listen to them, ask what their performance was and how actionable is the information they are sharing with you. Bill’s 2011 performance of +55.81% in gains is truly remarkable (clearly enhanced by Bill’s larger trading footprint) and for BIO Forum members, his plays were totally transparent and actionable. Continue reading →

Not much has changed…..the market’s slow melt up continues at a fractions of a % per day pace….that’s what we get with uber light volume. This pace is fine by my since it’s also consolation which is health and needed (in absence of retracement). Continue reading →

After yesterday’s surprisingly strong tape on a historic low volume day, it’s easy to find yourself asking “What’s next for the markets?”. Of course, any investor must be able to have a plan for any answer and it’s true that no one REALLY knows what the market will do……however, if you practice safe high yield investing like many BIO Forum members do, your stress levels are low and your confidence is high. Continue reading →

Light volume due to US holidays and year-end window dressing by fund managers may give the appearance of substantial volatility…..but IMO, the Bull is simply on vacation until next week folks. I’m not going to read to much into the action of the tape this week because the markets are not going to reflect the actions of the “big boys” who are on vacation. It takes a move below 1248 to perhaps indicate a change on short term trend and above 1245, the index is either consolidating or advancing. Long-term trend is up. Mid-term trend is up. Short-term trend is up. Continue reading →

No surprise to BIO Forum members that the melt up has continued and we should expect quiet markets through the end of the year due to the holidays. Practicing safe high yield investing sure beats being in cash. Keep in mind that the markets are closed tomorrow and next Friday. Continue reading →

Orderly melt up continues going into this Christmas holiday shortened week (markets are closed Friday). Watching the intra-day effect of POMO on the Treasury yields has become interesting as you can clearly see when the Fed starts/stops his buying. Positive Quarterly results from Adobe and Darden add fuel to the melt up continuing. Continue reading →

OK….new day begins our new holiday week which will be shortened by the Christmas holiday being observed this Friday Dec. 24th. There’s no economic calender events being released today. Will the “mutual fund” Monday melt up continue…my guess is yes but on light volume. Continue reading →